SA CROP FARMING SECTOR OVERVIEW AS AT 22 APRIL 2026 South Africa agriculture outlook

South Africa agriculture outlook 2026

The detail:

SA CROP FARMING SECTOR

Key Factors & Intelligence Briefing — April 2026

Prepared for VitaLarch (Pty) Ltd  |  April 2026  |  CONFIDENTIAL

This briefing synthesises intelligence from three S&P Global Energy reports (Food & Agricultural Policy Report 2026; Global Agriculture & Food Predictions 2026; Middle East Conflict Agricultural Trade Implications) alongside the most current South African sector data and market analysis available as at April 2026. It is structured to surface the factors of greatest practical relevance to South African crop farmers and the broader agricultural value chain. It is prepared exclusively for VitaLarch (Pty) Ltd and is not intended for external distribution.

1.  SOUTH AFRICA PRODUCTION OUTLOOK 2025/26

1.1  Strong Season Driven by La Niña

South Africa enters 2026 on one of its strongest agricultural footings in years. Encouraged by La Niña-driven rainfall, farmers expanded total summer crop plantings for the 2025/26 season by 13% relative to the prior season, to just over 4.9 million hectares. Maize plantings reached approximately 2.67 million hectares. National dam levels stood above 90% full by mid-December 2025, dramatically reducing irrigation pumping costs for water-intensive operations.

USDA satellite-derived NDVI data confirms near-record yields for the season. South Africa's total 2025/26 summer grains and oilseeds output is forecast at 20.3 million tonnes — marginally below the record 2024/25 season (itself the second-largest on record), which is a position of comfort rather than concern.

Key Production Figures — 2025/26 Season

Summer grains & oilseeds forecast: ~20.3 million tonnes

Total summer crop plantings: +13% YOY to 4.9 million hectares

Maize area: ~2.67 million hectares (+2.7% YOY)

Citrus exports forecast: +3–5% to 210–215 million 15kg cartons

Dam levels at planting time: >90% nationally

Tractor sales (Jan–Nov 2025): 7,176 units, up 19% YOY

1.2  Confidence Index and Business Sentiment

The Agbiz/IDC Agribusiness Confidence Index (ACI) reached 67 in Q4 2025 — 17 points above neutral — reflecting strong optimism entering the new season. However, Q1 2026 saw the ACI fall 18 points to 49 (just below neutral), as agribusinesses flagged concerns about animal diseases, geopolitical uncertainty, and rising input costs. Tractor sales declined 8% year-on-year in March 2026 for the first time in 14 months. This moderation is worth monitoring but does not signal a structural reversal — it reflects the caution of a sector navigating mixed conditions rather than broad deterioration.

1.3  Fruit, Horticulture & High-Value Crops

Fruit and horticulture remain a relative bright spot. Citrus export volumes are projected to grow 3–5% in 2026, and stone fruit, table grapes, and other horticultural commodities benefited from improved port logistics and favourable growing conditions in the Cape regions during 2025. Vegetable production is also reported in good condition, with La Niña rains reducing daily irrigation requirements and associated energy costs.

1.4  Grain Price Risk — The Margin Squeeze

The strong SA harvest coincides with a globally bearish grain price environment. S&P Global Energy forecasts CME corn futures at approximately $3.90/bushel for 2025/26 and $3.75/bushel for 2026/27, while soybean futures are projected at $9.45 and $9.35/bushel respectively. For SA grain farmers, another bumper crop translates directly into lower farm-gate prices — tightening margins despite high yields. Grain and oilseed producers who expanded plantings in response to favourable conditions may find the revenue outcome disappointing. This dynamic strengthens the case for cost-efficiency tools across the input chain.

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2.  INPUT COSTS — FERTILISER, FUEL & CHEMICALS

2.1  Fertiliser: Elevated but Stabilising

South Africa imports approximately 80% of its annual fertiliser requirements, making it acutely sensitive to global fertiliser market dynamics. The World Bank Fertiliser Price Index rose 15% since the start of 2025, with Triple Superphosphate up 43% and DAP up 23% during this period. Field crop farmers — the core users of imported fertiliser — bore the greatest cost impact entering the 2025/26 season.

The outlook for 2026 is more constructive. Urea prices are forecast to decline approximately 7% and DAP by approximately 8%, driven by new production capacity coming online in East Asia and the Middle East. This easing hinges on stable natural gas and ammonia prices and the absence of fresh trade disruptions. Current fertiliser prices, while elevated relative to pre-COVID norms, remain well below the 2022/23 crisis peaks triggered by the Russia-Ukraine war.

Fertiliser Price Outlook (Global, 2026)

Urea: forecast -7% decline from 2025 highs

DAP: forecast -8% decline

MOP (Potash): moderate price easing expected

SA imports ~80% of annual fertiliser requirements — global prices matter directly

Prices remain elevated vs. pre-2020 baseline

2.2  Energy & Fuel Costs

S&P Global Energy projects energy prices to trend lower in 2026 as production increases, though prices remain at elevated levels. For SA farmers, this offers modest relief on diesel and irrigation pump costs — particularly relevant given the country's ongoing grid instability and reliance on diesel generators. La Niña rainfall has reduced irrigation frequency for many operations in 2025/26, providing additional energy cost relief during the growing season.

2.3  Pesticide Availability & Regulatory Risk

The global pesticide regulatory environment is in flux and carries direct implications for South African farmers and export compliance. In the United States, key herbicides — including glyphosate, atrazine, paraquat, and neonicotinoid seed treatments — face escalating legal and political challenges under the Trump administration's MAHA (Make America Healthy Again) agenda. The EPA faces court-mandated review deadlines for several of these products in 2026. Availability and pricing of these chemicals in global markets could be disrupted depending on outcomes.

In the EU, the proposed 'food and feed safety omnibus' package controversially proposes to make pesticide approvals permanent rather than subject to periodic re-evaluation — but simultaneously seeks to fast-track approval of biological alternatives and biocontrol products. This regulatory shift has significant knock-on implications for South African exporters, since EU Maximum Residue Limits (MRLs) govern what can legally be applied to crops destined for European markets.

A key risk for SA exporters: EU regulations are tightening scrutiny on certain synthetic chemicals, while globally banned products like paraquat (banned in the EU, China, Brazil, and dozens of other countries) remain in use in South Africa. Any tightening of EU import MRL standards or South Africa's own registration reviews could restrict access to premium export markets.

2.4  Biofuel Demand & Vegetable Oil Prices

A less obvious but material input cost risk stems from the global biofuel policy environment. Indonesia's planned shift from B40 to B50 biodiesel blending, combined with a significant increase in US Renewable Volume Obligations, is forecast to drive vegetable oil prices 10–20% higher in 2026. This directly increases the cost of surfactant-based crop protection formulations and lubricants throughout the agricultural supply chain. It also raises the value of SA's own sunflower and soybean oil production.

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3. TRADE, EXPORT MARKETS & TARIFF RISKS

3.1  US Tariffs & AGOA — A Critical Moment

South Africa's agricultural export access to the United States underwent significant turbulence in 2025 and remains highly uncertain in 2026. The original Trump 'Liberation Day' tariff of 30% on SA exports was partially superseded by a Supreme Court ruling in February 2026 that struck down the IEEPA tariff authority (6-3), reducing the rate to 10% under Section 122 authority — a significant 20-point reduction. However, this Section 122 rate is set to expire around 24 July 2026, reintroducing uncertainty.

AGOA was reauthorised for only one year (to 31 December 2026) in February 2026, providing duty-free access for qualifying SA products including citrus, macadamias, ostrich, grapes, wine, and nuts. However, South Africa's long-term AGOA eligibility is under formal review, with US legislators questioning SA's geopolitical positioning relative to China and Russia. The Senate's 'AGOA 2.0' bill explicitly links renewal to bilateral trade reforms and SA's foreign policy alignment with US interests.

AGOA & US Tariff Status — April 2026

AGOA reauthorised to 31 December 2026 only (one-year extension)

Current US tariff on SA exports: 10% (Section 122) — expires ~July 24, 2026

SA citrus US market generates ~R1.8 billion annually; ~35,000 jobs at risk under higher tariffs

Macadamias, wine, ostrich, grapes benefit from AGOA 0% duty

SA AGOA eligibility under formal review — outcome uncertain post-2026

Total US–SA two-way trade: ~$21.6 billion (2024)

3.2  EU Trade & the Deforestation Regulation

The EU remains South Africa's largest agricultural export market, and the policy environment in Brussels continues to evolve in ways that directly affect SA exporters. The EU's anti-deforestation regulation (EUDR) — which requires food companies to prove that imported commodities did not originate from deforested land — has been delayed a further year. Large and medium companies will now face requirements from 30 December 2026, small enterprises from 30 June 2027. While this delay relieves immediate compliance pressure, SA exporters of soy, coffee, cocoa, and timber products must proactively build traceability systems before the law comes into force.

Separately, the EU is aggressively simplifying its broader sustainability reporting architecture ('omnibus' packages), reducing requirements on approximately 90% of EU companies. For SA exporters, this means EU buyers may face less formal obligation to audit their supply chains — reducing near-term compliance pressure but also potentially reducing the premium value of verified sustainable sourcing credentials.

3.3  EU–Mercosur & New Free Trade Agreements

The EU's push to ratify a free trade agreement with the Mercosur bloc (Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay) has been delayed but not abandoned. If ratified, this agreement would give Brazilian and Argentine agricultural products preferential access to the EU market — in direct competition with South African exports of citrus, wine, stone fruit, and grains. South African exporters and the government need to monitor this development and ensure their own bilateral trade agreements with the EU are adequately protective.

3.4  China's Agricultural Supply Diversification

China is deliberately and systematically reducing its agricultural import dependence on the United States and Western suppliers, redirecting procurement toward Brazil, Russia, Australia, and the Global South. Brazil's share of China's soybean imports has grown from 62% in 2017/18 to a projected 80% in 2025/26, while the US share has fallen to just 8%. This structural shift has significant implications for South African exporters of oilseeds, grains, citrus, and red meat seeking to grow their China market presence.

Positively, China's appetite for diversified supply creates an opening for South Africa — particularly for products where Brazil and Australia are not dominant suppliers. However, China suspended South African beef imports in 2025 due to Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD), which must be resolved before full Chinese market access can be exploited.

3.5  Regional Trade Frictions

A concerning trend emerged at the close of 2025: several SADC neighbours — Botswana, Mozambique, and Namibia — introduced import bans or restrictions on South African vegetables and poultry products respectively. These moves reflect growing tensions within the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) framework and a trend toward regional protectionism. For South African grain and horticulture producers who depend on regional market access during bumper years to manage price pressure, this is a significant medium-term risk.

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4.  BIOSECURITY, ANIMAL DISEASE & PHYTOSANITARY COMPLIANCE

4.1  Foot-and-Mouth Disease — A National Crisis

Foot-and-Mouth Disease remains South Africa's most serious agricultural biosecurity challenge and a direct threat to the sector's trade credibility. The FMD outbreak resulted in China suspending beef imports from South Africa in 2025, and the government only announced a national vaccination programme for the 12.1-million-head national cattle herd at the end of 2025. Vaccine supply logistics and questions over the potency of vaccines sourced from Botswana remain unresolved challenges.

The financial stakes are enormous. South Africa's livestock industry is valued at approximately R80 billion, and loss of FMD-free status directly blocks access to premium beef export markets. The linkage is direct: FMD-free status is the 'passport' that allows products to cross international borders, while AGOA is the 'ticket' that makes them financially viable once there. Both must be secured simultaneously.

FMD Risk Assessment — 2026

National cattle herd: 12.1 million head

Livestock industry value: ~R80 billion

China beef import ban: in force since 2025 — market closure ongoing

National vaccination programme: announced Dec 2025, rollout challenges persist

Vaccine supply: dependent on Botswana — quantity and potency concerns

AGOA meat exports: contingent on FMD-free status restoration

Key risk: worker biosecurity behaviour on farms is the critical compliance gap

4.2  Avian Influenza & Swine Disease

Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) continues to be the most disruptive disease affecting SA's poultry trade environment. The DALRRD has implemented repeated import suspensions and reinstatements across multiple supplier countries. HPAI is also causing SA's own poultry exports to face biosecurity-based market restrictions. African Swine Fever (ASF) adds a further layer of risk to the piggery sector in 2026. The cattle, poultry, and pork sectors are all navigating disease-driven operational uncertainty simultaneously — the broadest such exposure in recent memory.

4.3  Export Compliance — Pesticide MRLs

South African export products must comply with the Maximum Residue Limits of importing countries as a condition of market access. The EU's shifting pesticide regulatory framework — including proposals for unlimited pesticide approvals and the rollback of certain sustainability standards — creates moving compliance targets for SA exporters. SA legislation requires only pesticides registered under the Fertilizers, Farm Feeds, Agricultural Remedies and Stock Remedies Act to be used, and exporters must verify MRLs with importers and agents in each destination market. As EU chemical regulations evolve, SA farmers need ongoing guidance from commodity boards and exporters on which crop protection products remain compliant for export use.

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5.  GLOBAL COMMODITY PRICE SIGNALS RELEVANT TO SA FARMERS

5.1  Grains — Bearish Outlook

The global grain price environment in 2026 is broadly bearish. Record US corn carryout levels (projected above 2.3 billion bushels), weak Chinese demand, and South America's record soybean harvests are collectively suppressing futures prices. SA farmers producing white and yellow maize and soybeans for domestic and regional markets will face lower commodity prices in 2026 despite good production volumes — a classic surplus-market margin squeeze. The silver lining is that lower global grain prices reduce feed costs across the livestock and poultry value chain.

5.2  Sugar — Price Under Pressure

Global sugar prices declined approximately 30% from February 2025 highs by late 2025, driven by a substantial supply surplus of approximately 4 million metric tons in 2025/26. Expanded cane areas in Brazil, Thailand, and India combined with favourable monsoon weather are the primary drivers. For South Africa's own sugar industry, domestic protection through SASA arrangements and import tariffs provides a buffer, but the global price floor suppresses export revenue opportunities. The SA sugar industry's restructuring continues under considerable financial pressure.

5.3  Vegetable Oils — Rising

In contrast to grains, vegetable oil prices are forecast to rise 10–20% in 2026, driven by biofuel policy mandates in Indonesia (B40 to B50), the US, and Brazil. This benefits SA sunflower and soybean producers who can capture higher farm-gate oil premiums. It also raises input costs for any agricultural operations that use vegetable oil-derived products.

5.4  Beef — Elevated Prices Globally

Global beef prices are expected to remain underpinned in 2026 due to supply tightness in the US and Brazil — both of which are in herd-rebuilding phases. This creates a favourable export price environment for any SA beef that can access international markets. However, South Africa's ability to capitalise on this is severely constrained by the ongoing FMD market access restrictions, particularly the China ban. Resolving FMD is therefore not just a biosecurity imperative — it is a direct revenue opportunity.

5.5  Cocoa & Coffee — Moderating from Record Highs

Cocoa futures fell by more than half from their late-2024 record highs above $12,000/Mt, with a projected 258,000 Mt global surplus in 2025/26. Coffee prices are also moderating as Brazilian production recovers and global supply expands. These trends reduce cost pressure on the food manufacturing sector that buys SA agricultural inputs — and may improve consumer spending capacity for food products.

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6.  MIDDLE EAST CONFLICT — SHIPPING & SUPPLY CHAIN DISRUPTION

6.1  The Conflict Scenario

US-Israeli military strikes on Iran commenced on 28 February 2026, triggering immediate disruption to maritime trade flows through the Strait of Hormuz and elevated risk to the Suez Canal corridor. Container rates on the West Coast India–Middle East route spiked from $80/TEU to $700/TEU within days. Carriers began suspending shipments to conflict-affected destinations, creating acute logistics disruption across multiple agricultural commodity markets simultaneously as of early March 2026.

6.2  Direct Implications for South Africa

South Africa is directly implicated in this disruption in several significant ways:

• Rerouting through South Africa: Ships avoiding the Suez Canal and Strait of Hormuz may be rerouted via the Cape of Good Hope — the route around South Africa. This historically increases shipping volumes through SA ports and may improve port revenue and logistics activity, but also adds transit time and cost for SA's own imports and exports routed through these corridors.

• Citrus export logistics: South Africa's citrus export season overlaps with this disruption. SA citrus bound for Middle Eastern markets (a growing destination) and for Asian markets via the Suez route faces scheduling disruptions and rising freight costs.

• Competing supply redirected to SA markets: Egyptian citrus — normally destined for Middle Eastern markets — may be redirected to alternative destinations including European and South American markets where SA citrus also competes. This could depress prices in those markets.

• Energy/fuel price pressure: Rising crude oil prices driven by Middle East conflict directly increase SA's diesel, fertiliser, and transport costs. This adds a fresh inflationary impulse to an already elevated input cost environment.

• Regional food security: Middle East food insecurity from disrupted import flows may create medium-term demand opportunities for SA agricultural exports if diplomatic channels and alternative routing can be established.

6.3  Fertiliser Supply Risk

The Strait of Hormuz is a critical transit point for global fertiliser trade, particularly for ammonia, urea, and phosphate products originating in the Gulf region. Any prolonged disruption could tighten global fertiliser supply and reverse the moderating price trend forecast for 2026 — representing a material upside risk to SA input costs. SA farmers and input suppliers should monitor this closely and consider forward purchasing strategies where feasible.

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7.  GLOBAL AGRICULTURAL POLICY ENVIRONMENT

7.1  EU Policy — Farmer Protection & Sustainability Rollback

The EU's agricultural policy direction in 2026 is firmly oriented toward protecting farmer incomes and reducing administrative burdens — often at the expense of sustainability requirements. Key developments directly relevant to SA include:

• Good Agricultural and Environmental Conditions (GAEC) requirements — the environmental standards European farmers must meet to receive CAP subsidies — have been substantially dismantled. This reduces the cost advantage SA farmers previously had from not being subject to comparable compliance costs.

• Planned unlimited pesticide approvals (permanent rather than time-limited) would reduce re-evaluation requirements for EU farmers, potentially allowing wider use of products that SA may face pressure to restrict for export compliance purposes.

• EU anti-deforestation rules delayed to 2027 — SA soy, wood, and coffee exporters have more time to build compliance systems but should not defer this work.

• New CAP negotiations for 2028–2034 are underway, with a proposed budget cut from €387 billion to €300 billion. This could reduce subsidy levels for competing EU producers in grain and oilseed markets, marginally improving SA export competitiveness.

7.2  US Policy — MAHA & Food Safety

The Trump administration's Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) agenda is reshaping the US food and agricultural regulatory landscape in ways that could affect SA exports over the medium term. The FDA is moving toward overhaul of the GRAS (Generally Recognized as Safe) food ingredient approval process, stricter scrutiny of synthetic food dyes, new front-of-pack labelling requirements, and action levels for heavy metals in baby food. US states are simultaneously enacting their own patchwork of food ingredient laws, creating a complex compliance environment for any SA processed food exporters targeting the US market.

7.3  Global Trade Architecture — WTO Life Support

The World Trade Organization's foundational Agreement on Agriculture — the 30-year-old framework governing global agricultural subsidy rules — faces an effective deadlock, with no prospect of meaningful reform. The US under Trump has treated WTO rules as largely irrelevant, acting unilaterally on tariffs. For South Africa, this means the multilateral safety net for agricultural trade is weakened, and bilateral relationships and agreements matter more than ever. SA's ability to secure and maintain bilateral trade deals with the EU, UK, China, the Gulf states, and others is the most critical strategic variable in the country's agricultural trade future.

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8.  SUSTAINABILITY, CONSUMER TRENDS & MARKET POSITIONING

8.1  The Global Shift Toward Natural & Sustainable Inputs

Perhaps the most strategically significant long-term trend for VitaLarch's market positioning is the global regulatory and consumer momentum toward natural, bio-based crop production inputs. Several converging forces are accelerating this trend:

• US MAHA pressure on synthetic pesticides and food additives is creating bipartisan political support for restricting chemical inputs in food production — unusual in Washington and a signal of durable trend rather than short-term politics.

• EU unlimited pesticide approval proposals include an explicit rationale: freeing up regulatory capacity to approve biological control alternatives faster. This accelerated biocontrol approval pathway directly benefits natural plant-based product categories.

• Growing consumer awareness of ultra-processed foods (UPFs) is translating into retailer and food manufacturer demand for clean-label supply chains — traced back to farm production practices and inputs used.

• South African farmers accessing premium export markets (EU, UK, Japan, UAE) increasingly face retailer sustainability codes of conduct that favour reduced synthetic chemical programmes.

8.2  Biostimulants — A Growing Regulatory Category

The European Union's plant biostimulant regulation (EU 2019/1009) established biostimulants as a distinct and legitimate product category, creating a harmonised regulatory pathway. This framework is progressively influencing regulatory thinking in other jurisdictions, including South Africa's own Department of Agriculture. The global biostimulant market is growing rapidly, driven by farmer demand for yield-enhancing products that reduce synthetic input dependency — particularly relevant in a period of elevated fertiliser costs and export compliance pressure.

8.3  Food Inflation & Affordability

Despite dramatic commodity price volatility, overall food price inflation globally is forecast to remain subdued in 2026, as improved supply in most categories and modest economic growth limit demand-side pressure. For South African farmers, this means the domestic consumer market provides limited upside pricing power — reinforcing the importance of export market access where price premiums are available for quality and sustainably produced products.

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9.  CONSOLIDATED RISK & OPPORTUNITY MATRIX

KEY RISKS

Risk Factor	Severity	SA-Specific Impact
FMD — livestock market access	HIGH	R80bn livestock sector; China beef ban; AGOA meat exports blocked
AGOA expiry / US tariff uncertainty	HIGH	Citrus, nuts, wine, ostrich at risk; ~R1.8bn citrus US revenue
Grain price collapse (bumper crop + bearish global)	HIGH	Expanded plantings + low prices = margin squeeze for grain farmers
Middle East conflict — shipping/freight costs	MEDIUM-HIGH	Higher fuel & transport costs; citrus logistics disruption; fertiliser risk
Fertiliser cost resurgence (Middle East disruption)	MEDIUM	SA imports 80% of fertiliser; Hormuz disruption reverses price easing
EU deforestation compliance (from Dec 2026)	MEDIUM	Soy, coffee exporters must build traceability systems now
Regional trade barriers (SADC neighbours)	MEDIUM	Botswana, Mozambique, Namibia import restrictions on SA produce
AVIAN INFLUENZA / ASF disease spread	MEDIUM	Poultry and pork sectors at risk; export bans possible
Pesticide MRL compliance drift	MEDIUM	Moving regulatory targets in EU; SA export residue rejection risk
EU–Mercosur FTA ratification	LOW-MEDIUM	Brazilian/Argentine competition in SA's EU export markets

KEY OPPORTUNITIES

Opportunity	Potential	SA-Specific Relevance
Global beef price premium	HIGH	Elevated global beef prices reward FMD resolution; China market re-entry
Vegetable oil price rise	HIGH	Higher sunflower & soybean oil prices benefit SA oilseed producers
Regulatory tailwind for biocontrol/natural inputs	HIGH	EU & US policy accelerating biocontrol approvals; biostimulant demand rising
China supply diversification	MEDIUM-HIGH	SA can position as alternative supplier; citrus, nuts, wine, fruit
Cape route shipping uplift	MEDIUM	Middle East conflict rerouting ships via SA — port revenue & logistics activity
Fertiliser cost moderation	MEDIUM	Urea & DAP prices forecast to ease ~7–8% in 2026 (absent ME disruption)
Export market diversification (UAE, Gulf, Asia)	MEDIUM	Middle East disruption highlights need to diversify; Gulf remains key buyer
Strong citrus export season	MEDIUM	3–5% volume growth forecast; improved port logistics from 2025
Consumer demand for natural/clean label supply chains	MEDIUM	Premium pricing for sustainably produced SA agricultural products
Regional food security demand	MEDIUM	Bumper SA harvest supports SADC food security; trade relationships

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10.  KEY WATCH ITEMS — SECOND HALF 2026

The following specific events and developments should be tracked closely for their impact on SA crop farming and the agricultural value chain:

• AGOA & US tariff resolution (July 2026): Section 122 tariff expires ~24 July 2026. A new bilateral framework or AGOA extension is needed urgently to maintain SA's US export competitiveness.

• USMCA review (July 2026): The outcome of this review will reshape North American agricultural trade flows — with indirect effects on global commodity prices, US export competitiveness, and the markets SA competes in.

• FMD vaccination programme progress: The pace and efficacy of SA's national cattle vaccination rollout will determine when China's beef import ban can be lifted and when premium meat export market access is restored.

• Middle East conflict trajectory: Duration and escalation of the Iran conflict determines fertiliser supply risk, shipping cost trajectories, and the extent to which global commodity flows are disrupted.

• EPA decisions on glyphosate and atrazine (US, 2026): Supreme Court and EPA registration review outcomes will affect global availability and pricing of these critical herbicides.

• EU EUDR simplification review (April 30, 2026 deadline): The Commission's review of the deforestation regulation's administrative burden could trigger further rule changes — creating uncertainty for SA exporters building compliance systems.

• SA FTA negotiations — EU bilateral and SADC: Progress (or lack thereof) on bilateral trade negotiations will determine SA agriculture's medium-term export market access and competitiveness.

• Maize and grain harvest outcomes (March–May 2026): Final yield data will confirm whether the 20.3 Mt grains forecast is achieved and signal the extent of the grain price pressure facing SA farmers in H2 2026.

SOURCES & ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

S&P Global Energy: Food & Agricultural Policy Report 2026 (March 2026) | Global Agriculture & Food — Our Predictions for 2026 (December 2025) | Middle East Conflict: Agricultural Commodities Trade Implications (March 2026). Additional sources: Agbiz/IDC Agribusiness Confidence Index Q4 2025/Q1 2026; USDA World Agricultural Production (April 2026); Farmer's Weekly SA; Daily Maverick (Wandile Sihlobo); Food for Mzansi; BizCommunity; CCARDESA; AgriSA; SAMAC; African Farming; ChickenFacts.co.za. All SA current data sourced April 2026.

CONFIDENTIALITY NOTICE: This document is prepared exclusively for VitaLarch (Pty) Ltd. It contains commercially sensitive third-party intelligence and is not to be reproduced, distributed, or made available to any other party without the express written consent of VitaLarch (Pty) Ltd.